IT is fair to say many Cork fans were expecting to have a battle with Tipperary in Croke Park this weekend.
However, Dublin’s shock win over Limerick has flipped the All-Ireland senior hurling championship on its head. Now, it’s Cork v Dublin in the semi-final at GAA HQ on Saturday (5pm).
Looking at the championship head-to-head record between the two sides, it points to a Cork win. The Dubs haven’t beaten the Rebels in the championship since 1927 and Cork have won the last 12 meetings. Seven of those came since the turn of the millennium (2007, ‘08, ‘13, ‘16, ‘20, ‘21 and ‘24), albeit their meeting in last year’s quarter-final in Thurles was a close one (0-26 to 0-21).
Even though Cork won the Munster SHC after a gripping final against Limerick, the Rebels haven’t hit top speed in the championship yet. Yes, Dublin are playing in an evidently weaker Leinster SHC but their stats, compared to Cork’s, have been impressive thus far.
On average, Pat Ryan’s side have missed 16.6 attempts per match, a run which included 17 wides against both Limerick and Waterford. For context, Cork hit 16 misses against Dublin in the quarter-final last year – could this be a sign of standards slipping?
Maybe it’s a case of the Rebels hitting form at the right time, much like the Kerry footballers do or what the Cork footballers did in 2010.
Dublin recorded 18 misses against Cork in last year’s clash, and have averaged just 12.75 in this year’s championship. The intensity from the Dubs was evident against Limerick but Cork need to a close eye on their marksmen too, such as Seán Currie, John Hetherton and the man with links to Beara, Cian O’Sullivan.
An area where Cork can experience some joy is the puckout. It’s an aspect where the Rebels have been questioned but, to be fair, they are averaging a puckout win percentage of 68.4 while winning 39.4 percent of the opposition's puckouts. Dublin, on the other hand, while a 68 percent own puckout retention is good, they have only won 29.5 percent of their opposition’s restarts. That indicates that either they retreat and will leave Cork to play the ball short or their middle players struggle under the high ball.
Winning turnovers have been scrappy at times from both teams, with Cork only winning the turnover battle in two games out of five so far. The Rebels have averaged 28.2 turnovers won and 29.8 lost. Dublin have won 24.5 on average, losing 24.5 but against Limerick, they won 26 and lost 18. That stat isn’t a shock given the intensity shown.
Of course, you have the Dublin manager Niall Ó Ceallacháin who coached Na Fianna to win the All-Ireland club SHC title earlier this year, against a Cork club in Sarsfields no less. That Limerick game was almost a carbon copy of how Na Fianna played, with a never-say-die attitude. Bottom line, if Cork aren’t on it or they take Dublin lightly, they will be in trouble.
