Cairns’ Social Democrats edge higher in poll

THE Social Democrats, led by local TD Holly Cairns, have risen in popularity by one percentage point, remaining the fourth most popular party in the country. 

According to the latest ‘Ireland Thinks’ poll in the Sunday Independent, the Social Democrats have now garnered the support of 6% of voters, up from 5%. 

Sinn Féin remains on top at 33%, despite falling by one percentage point. Support for Fine Gael rose by two points to 21%, according to the poll, while Fianna Fáil is next most popular party, experiencing no change, at 18%.   

According to the poll’s projection, the Social Democrats stand to win nine Dáil seats in the general election. The projection is based on an Ireland Thinks statistical model of the historical relationship between parties’ vote share and the seat share in Irish elections.

Sinn Féin is set to be a clear leader, with a predicted win of 67 seats in the upcoming general election. However, the projections suggest they will be unable to form a government without the support of a bigger party. 

Fine Gael looks set to win 40 seats, followed by Fianna Fáil on 35 seats, according to the poll. It also predicts 15 independent TDs will be elected. 

If the projections ring true, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be unable to form a two-party government, with a combined 75 seats, requiring support from smaller parties or independents.